 
Top 10 Trends of the Internet
By Josh Linkner
A business sage once wrote that from the minute you crystallize a performance prediction, it's wrong. Similarly, when analysts try to pin down exactly what's going on with the Internet, that information becomes dated and stale within weeks - if not days. The Internet and the technology being developed both to run and to use this new medium are changing so rapidly that the only constant is, truly, change itself.
Within that framework, though, and with hedges against new technology introductions hitting the marketplace all the time, here are 10 leading trends of which Internet users should be aware. These are the benchmarks for true progress over the Internet.
1. Ultra-fast modems. Hardware running at 56 Kilobytes per second (Kbps) is gaining acceptance. Faster access over ordinary phone lines makes Internet use simpler for those unable or unwilling to get ISDN (Integrated Services Digital Network) telephone service, and 56 Kbps is fast emerging as a new standard.
ISDN speeds digital data transmission to the 128 Kbps level and beyond because it operates without the constraints of ordinary telephone tone-carrier technology. It is also expensive, mostly because telephone companies just haven't gotten on the ball to harmonize ISDN availability. It takes the same old wire, but it needs enlightened phone company management. A study by the Consumer Project on Technology found that 200 hours of ISDN use cost $505 per month in Indiana, while the same service cost just $45 in Wisconsin.
Cable modems, currently being field-tested in Connecticut, utilize the promise of full digital data transmission via cable providers and normal cable lines, which are already wired into most homes and businesses in America. This technology also offers the advantage of no dial-in hassles, no equipment to purchase and accessibility 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year.
2. Bad Web page design. Ever get stuck in one of those conversations with the guy who wants to tell you how he roller-painted his van and how he saves on hot water bills by running a garden hose over is roof? New "simple" HTML and Web page tools are unleashing a crazed herd of those folks on the Internet, and they're coming up with some creamers. It's a good time for businesses to offer professional, well-developed Internet sites to avoid getting lost in the wash.
3. "Cookies" programs. Small computer-resident text files that track a user's access patterns and interests are being baked into more Internet access functions. "Cookies" squawk a text snapshot of a user to the services the user connects with, which, in turn, can tailor their offerings to meet the interests and needs of specific users.
4. Wireless technology. Hughes and AT&T have each brought forward Internet access technology that relies on broadcast - rather than direct-connect - services. Hughes has demonstrated DirectPC, a 400 Kbps access, while AT&T has announced digital wireless local loop technology claimed to provide up to 128 Kbps access.
COMPETITIVE PAYBACK?
Since telephone companies are just now getting excited about bringing digital video to homes using a technology called xDSL, it only stands to reason that phoneline dependent Internet service may find itself taking to the air waves.
5. Software Internet reliance. Designed-in Internet access is already a feature of most major computer software releases. An example is Lotus' Smartsuite 97, a utility bundle that comes with its own "helpful Internet" access panel.
Ordinary computer help functions and customer communications are shifting to simultaneous Internet-based access, with a shift away from toll-free number type calling centers for individual help calls. Automatic software updating via the Internet is another example of this.
6. VRML as the new standard on the World Wide Web. Three-dimensional graphics are about to revolutionize our preceptions and our interactions on the World Wide Web.
Businesses with professionally developed Web sites don't get lost in the wash. |
Imagine sitting in a room, looking at objects, calling up information regarding them and manipulating them. It will happen in virtual rooms utilizing Virtual Reality Modeling Language - VRML - on the Web. It is already at a few select sites and on a few cutting-edge intranets. Examples include Levi's in-house kiosk, which takes you on a tour of "Jeanometry," a virtual Levi's store, and two 3.5-inch floppy disks that outline 500 features of a new Mercedes Benz.
This technology is limited by the power of our desktop machines. Only top-of-the-line machines currently on the market are equipped to handle 3-D rendering and the like. However, at the current pace of computer technology advancement, it's only a matter of time before this capability becomes much more widespread.
7. Avatars. Avatars are images that you select to represent yourself in a 3-D chat site on the Web. Call it your "on-line personification," endlessly editable to suit your fancy, with your imagination as the only restriction.
A company called Onlive! Technologies has already demonstrated its Onlive Traveler!, one of the first VRML chat environments on the Web. A microphone and a software plug-in for Netscape allow participants to chat in virtual bars, discos, parks or any other virtual setting, face-to-face from anywhere in the world.
8. Talking to your computer. For most of us, the only sounds that come out of our computers are explosions as we blast invaders from Mars or World War II German infantry - that or those annoying "error" beeps reminding us of our unfamilarity with our machines.
SOUND EXPLOSION
However, this is changing rapidly. Already you can listen to new music releases on the Web at sites such as MusicNet, and you can tune in to various stations broadcasting everything from gospel music to industrial-techno beats. Sound bites attached to Web sites, such as a friendly greeting inviting you to explore a company's site, are gaining popularity as technologies such as DSP Group's True-Speech make adding sound to a Web site easy.
Perhaps the most interesting application of sound on the Web is the integration of telephony technology and Web navigation - using a Web link to speak, through your computer and the Internet, to a live body at the other end of the line. Imagine visiting a site, viewing its posted pages and not finding the particular answer for which you are looking. You would simply click on the "contact representative" link, and in moments you would be asking the question of a customer service representative in a regional office.
9. Intranets and extranets replacing the Internet for companies and universities. Intranets and extranets will begin to take some of the traffic off the Internet as companies, universities and organizations begin to see the advantages of in-house networking. Intranets and extranets are high-speed networks connecting designated work stations.
It's only a matter of time before 3-D becomes much more widespread. |
Intranets and extranets provide a means of managing all inter-office communication, disseminating information, maintaining network security and regulating Internet usage - goals that most system administrators strive to achieve. They are not limited by proximity, and the costs of implementation are generally recouped within 12 months through reduced telecommunications, printing and paper costs, as well as increased efficiency, according to a recent study.
10. "My Internet." Through the use of the aforemetioned "cookies" and the increased proliferation of "push" technologies, the Internet is changing. Push technology is the means by which information comes to a user via the Internet automatically, instead of the user going to the Internet and searching for it.
Josh Linkner is president of GlobalLink New Media Inc., a Bloomfield Hills, MI based Internet business solutions provider with offices nationwide. He can be reached at (248)433-0900; e-mail is josh@glolink.com.
|